An uncontrolled observational study that measures saturated fat consumption and heart disease mortality can be very misleading. Even a diet experiment that reduces saturated fat but doesn't tell people what to eat more of when they reduce saturated fat has the same problem. Replacing it with stick margarine should increase heart attacks. Replacing it with sugar and white flour (which is just as bad) shouldn't make any difference. Replacing it with canola oil based margarine should reduce heart attacks like it did in the Lyon Diet-Heart Study. Replacing it with fruits, vegetables, beans and whole grains should also reduce heart attacks like it did for the rural Chinese during the 80's and like it did for Dr. Ornish and Dr. Esselstyn's clinical trials.
There's also the problem that different kinds of saturated fat have different effects. Wild game has a higher percentage of stearic acid which lowers LDL, lauric acid from coconuts improves the LDL/HDL ratio and palmitic acid from feedlot meat raises LDL and and makes the LDL/HDL ratio worse. Also meat can have vastly different palmitic acid content depending on whether it is wild game, grass-fed or produced in a feedlot. Also there are confounding variables like smoking, exercise, alcohol, pre-existing health conditions etc. etc.
So there are several observational studies that show an association with heart disease mortality and several that don't. And there are several experimental studies that show an association and others that don't. This isn't surprising. However, in experiments when saturated fat is replaced by polyunsaturated fat with a good balance of omega-3 to omega-6, heart disease is consistently reduced. (1) And in experiments when saturated fat is replaced with fruits, vegetables, whole grains and beans, heart disease is consistently reduced in about 80% of the people.
Is animal fat ever the best replacement for refined carbs? In spite of the claims of non-scientists modern HGs did not eat a diet high in palmitic acid (because wild game is low in palmitic acid). And high palmitic acid diets like the traditional Atkins don't produce the same low LDL levels or the same low rate of heart disease. See myth #1.
REFERENCES
1. Ramsden CE, Hibbeln JR, Majchrzak SF, Davis JM. n-6 fatty acid-specific and mixed polyunsaturate dietary interventions have different effects on CHD risk: a meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials. Br J Nutr. 2010 Dec;104(11):1586-600.
