“Confirmation bias refers to a type of selective thinking whereby one tends to notice and to look for what confirms one's beliefs, and to ignore, not look for, or undervalue the relevance of what contradicts one's beliefs.”
“Confirmation biases contribute to overconfidence in personal beliefs and can maintain or strengthen beliefs in the face of contrary evidence. Hence they can lead to disastrous decisions, especially in organizational, military, political and social contexts.”
“Individuals have to constantly remind themselves of this tendency and actively seek out data contrary to their beliefs. Since this is unnatural, it appears that the ordinary person is doomed to bias.”
Skeptic's Dictionary
Wikipedia: Confirmation Bias
Was Colin Campbell looking for evidence that a moderate amount of animal food can be compatible with good health?
Was Gary Taubes looking for evidence that animal fat is associated with cancer or heart disease?
These are smart people. If they were looking they would have found it. Smart people are not immune to confirmation bias.
While I agree with most of what Colin Campbell has to say and disagree with most of what Gary Taubes has to say, they are both prime examples.
Here's an interesting article that concludes with this quote.
"In science, you move closer to the truth by seeking evidence to the contrary." http://youarenotsosmart.com/2010/06/23/confirmation-bias/
"The scientific method - the method wherein inquiry regards itself as fallible and purposely tests itself and criticizes, corrects, and improves itself." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method
THE LOGICAL ERROR OF AFFIRMING THE CONSEQUENT
In the following syllogism theory P is not proven by observation Q. Observation Q is consistent with theory P, but an alternative explanation might be correct. Trying to falsify theory P is equally important in the search for truth. Confirmation bias hinders us from doing this.
Theory P predicts that we will observe Q.
Experimental observation shows Q.
Therefore theory P is true.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affirming_the_consequent
